I’m starting a trading experiment together with volition last recording the results on the weblog periodically.
The experiment has involved going dorsum to my question together with identifying robust, replicable patterns inwards the ES futures contract together with SPY ETF. I specifically selected patterns that play out over a multiday period, alongside average asset times of several days. The patterns demonstrated a distinct border inwards 2012 together with 2013 trading together with and so were tested independently on 2014 information equally an out-of-sample exam together with and so were farther tested independently on 2015 information to date.
Now it’s fourth dimension for alive trading.
There are iii full general patterns:
1) Failure Pattern – A marketplace advance loses breadth together with momentum together with reverses.
2) Reversal Pattern – A marketplace turn down leads to wide weakness together with expanded volatility, resulting inwards a reversal bounce higher.
3) Momentum Pattern – A marketplace rising occurs alongside company breadth together with momentum together with continues higher inwards the brusk run.
In the experiment, I volition entirely merchandise those patterns. That agency enough of days of non trading together with sizing upward days when patterns occur. Each blueprint is defined past times a scorecard of criteria; if all criteria are non met, no merchandise is taken.
A laid out unit of measurement of opportunity is entered when the dot fires; farther units are added on evidence that the dot is playing out equally expected. Entries together with exits for those farther units are discretionary, based on intraday trading patterns.
A magazine volition rail all signals together with trades together with how I traded them, alongside observations translated into goals for continuous improvement. The experiment is therefore equally good an experiment inwards self-coaching. I promise to part lessons learned via the blog.
At the arts and crafts beer networking trial a calendar week from Th (May 21st), I volition beak over the projection farther alongside interested traders. A honor almost that trial volition acquire out this coming week.
Imagine if a grouping of likeminded, dedicated traders conducted their ain experiments together with shared results. That would generate quite an accelerated learning curve. There’s a big divergence betwixt years of marketplace sense together with a unmarried year’s sense repeated many times over. That divergence is deliberate practice together with a structured learning from experience.
Further Reading: Identifying Trend Days