Stocks moved smartly to novel highs inwards the major averages this by week. Sector rotation was especially noteworthy, amongst old leaders utilities as well as consumer staples–defensive as well as yield plays–falling behind as well as to a greater extent than growth-oriented sectors–consumer discretionary as well as raw materials–showing detail strength. This reflects describe inwards U.S. of A. economical information as well as an increased pricing of odds that the Fed volition start to normalize involvement rates afterward this year.
The top nautical chart tracks the lay out of stocks across all exchanges making fresh three-month novel highs vs. novel lows. (Raw information from the Barchart site). Note that novel highs convey been growing inwards recent sessions, merely rest below peak levels seen inwards 2014. This reflects the fact that many sectors, such equally financials, energy, consumer staples, as well as healthcare, convey non registered recent novel highs. Still, I banknote that relatively few shares are registering fresh novel lows, an indication that buying has been broad-based. Indeed, the bottom nautical chart tracks the Cumulative NYSE TICK–the cumulative upticks vs. downticks for all NYSE stocks–and shows consistent buying involvement from institutional players. (Raw information from e-Signal).
The 2d nautical chart from the top is my mensurate of intermediate term marketplace strength. It is a 10-day moving average of SPX stocks making 5, 20, as well as 100-day highs vs. lows. (Raw information from Index Indicators). It has risen sharply inwards recent sessions as well as is close a momentum peak. Note that it is non at all odd for this describe mensurate to top out ahead of cost during intermediate-term marketplace cycles, which way that nosotros could encounter farther upside drift fifty-fifty if breadth moderates from here.
The 2d nautical chart from the bottom shows the lay out of NYSE stocks closing inwards a higher house their upper Bollinger Bands vs. those closing below their lower Bands. (Raw information from Stock Charts). It is really mutual for this mensurate to peak ahead of cost during intermediate-term marketplace cycles as well as that’s what has happened as well as then far. Note, however, that the Bollinger Balance–the lay out of stocks closing inwards a higher house vs. below their Bands–has remained consistently positive inwards recent sessions, reflecting the buying pressure level noted above.
So where does that operate out us? Here are a few observations:
* We made a momentum depression inwards mid-January, amongst the lows inwards really early on Feb drying up. From that point, nosotros convey embarked on a novel intermediate-term upward cycle, which is approaching a momentum peak;
* Buying pressure level has been meaning during this well-nigh recent upward cycle as well as should proceed to propel prices higher, fifty-fifty after nosotros convey made a momentum (breadth) peak for this cycle. We postulate to encounter selling pressure level from institutions start to overstep buying pressure level earlier the electrical flow cycle is imperiled;
* Despite fresh cost highs, many sectors are non making novel highs so far as well as stocks making novel highs are below 2014 levels. I believe the electrical flow upswing is business office of a wide topping formation inwards stocks as well as non a fresh bull marketplace leg; a meaning expansion of novel highs beyond 2014 levels would contradict that view;
* In my electrical flow base of operations illustration scenario, nosotros proceed to drift higher on upward buying momentum, merely ultimately volition top out as well as provide to the slowly 2014 trading hit equally business office of the market’s broader topping.
This is a full general roadmap; a wide hypothesis rather than a difficult as well as fast conclusion. As always, I volition locomote tracking the marketplace mensurate as well as updating that roadmap.
Further Reading: Views of Market Breadth