In the wake of the determination of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cease its peg to the euro, nosotros receive got seen massive volatility inward CHF, Swiss stocks, in addition to stocks in addition to currencies globally. Like a flash crash or an unexpected tidings detail or lucre unloosen from a company, such effect lead a chance has the potential to inflict pregnant impairment to trading accounts in addition to portfolios.
With the overnight activeness inward the ES futures, my mensurate of pure volatility–the amount of motion generated yesteryear a fixed amount of volume; reckon nautical chart above–has risen to its highest grade since the Oct lows. The same amount of stock index book is instantly generating to a greater extent than than twice every bit much motion every bit slowly inward December. What pure volatility tells us is that nosotros don’t require specific effect lead a chance to reckon dramatic increases inward marketplace movement. During recent marketplace selloffs we’ve seen both to a greater extent than book in addition to to a greater extent than volatility per unit of measurement of volume.
This is why stress-testing your positions in addition to portfolios is a best exercise inward trading. Consider the position(s) yous currently concur in addition to your intended belongings menses for that seat or positions. Now facial expression dorsum over the yesteryear 2 years of trading in addition to seat the worst drawdowns that could receive got occurred to that seat or portfolio over the course of didactics of that belongings period. Because fiscal returns are non usually distributed, the odds of outsized losses are greater than nosotros would hold back from park statistical analyses. Looking dorsum over a menses of years in addition to identifying worst possible drawdowns is at to the lowest degree a outset heuristic to allow yous know if yous could move a pregnant effect lead a chance or adverse move.
If the loss yous would incur from worst example gap/event risks or drawdowns would impair your trading line of piece of job concern human relationship in addition to impair your trading, yous know that your risk-taking amounts to a variety of Russian roulette. It is exclusively a affair of fourth dimension earlier an active trader encounters a two-plus criterion divergence adverse move. Sizing positions to move stress tests is immensely of import to longevity inward a trading career.
Sizing is non a full solution, however. Even reasonable sizing wouldn’t receive got protected yous from the variety of multi-multi criterion divergence displace nosotros only saw inward the Swiss franc. This is why diversification inward a portfolio is essential. When 1 seat blows out, other positions receive got the chance to run inward your favor. Spreading risks that are sized properly helps protect traders in addition to investors from those rogue moves that are associated alongside fatty tails of fiscal returns.
You can’t win the game if yous can’t remain inward the game. The trading literature is filled alongside admonitions to size upward trades in addition to portfolios when yous receive got confidence inward your views. Flash crashes happen. Downside gaps on negative lucre surprises happen. Spikes inward volatility happen. Confidence non tempered alongside prudence is an accident waiting to happen.
Further Reading: Mistakes inward Risk Taking