If you’ve followed the weblog for a while, you lot know that tracking the disclose of stocks across all exchanges making fresh one- together with three-month novel highs versus lows is 1 of my favorite measures of wide stock marketplace breadth. Above nosotros run into the three-month novel highs vs. lows (raw information from Barchart) going dorsum to the outset of 2014. We tin run into that breadth improved recently, every bit small-scale together with mid-cap stocks outperformed large caps. Even alongside that improvement, however, nosotros soundless run into fewer stocks registering novel high vs. depression forcefulness relative to the halt of 2014. Contributing to recent weakness has been non simply large caps, but too commodity-related shares. I snuff it along to stance this every bit a rotational, arrive at surroundings together with virtually probable purpose of a wide topping designing that volition eventually atomic number 82 to a meaningful correction.
Going dorsum to 2012, the novel high/low information convey mattered. If nosotros simply hold off at one-month novel highs together with split the information alongside a median split, nosotros run into that when novel highs convey been high, the adjacent 5 days inward SPY convey averaged a gain of +.11%. When novel highs convey been low, the adjacent 5 days inward SPY convey averaged a gain of +.55%. It’s yet roughly other swell example of how markets that hold off the best yield the worst returns on average. The results are similar if nosotros hold off at three-month novel highs. When those convey been high, the adjacent 5 days inward SPY convey averaged a gain of alone +.01%. When they convey been low, the adjacent 5 days inward SPY convey averaged a gain of +.64%.
Overall, chasing novel highs together with stopping out of long positions on expansions of novel lows has brought subnormal returns. We convey had a trending surroundings since 2012, but non a momentum environment. Understanding that distinction has been crucial to stock marketplace returns.
Further Reading: VIX together with Stock Market Returns