Here are the reasons I am cautious virtually the stock marketplace at this juncture:
1) We are seeing skilful buying activeness inwards stocks, equally gauged past times the NYSE TICK which has been making novel highs on a cumulative basis. Among the large caps (top chart), that buying activeness is no longer able to hand us fresh toll highs. (Credit for the hap 3 charts to Index Indicators). Note that breadth inwards the large caps has continued to dwindle throughout 2015, amongst fewer 100-day novel highs vs. lows.
2) We bring seen greater recent toll forcefulness amidst mid-caps (second nautical chart from top) in addition to pocket-size caps (second nautical chart from bottom), equally we’re hovering close toll highs. Despite this, the breadth specific to mid-caps in addition to small-caps has too been waning, amongst fewer shares making novel highs vs. lows inwards Apr than March.
3) If yous facial expression at the cash VIX, it seems equally though volatility remains crushed, equally VIX is sub-15. Actual volatility, however, equally measured past times average truthful arrive at over a rolling 100-day period, has been higher during 2015 than during the vast bulk of the prior ii trading years. Rising volatility inwards stocks historically has been associated amongst weakening markets, non strengthening ones. Indeed, volatility picked upward at marketplace highs inwards 2000 in addition to 2007 good earlier the subsequent behave markets. While I don’t hold back that form of behave marketplace activeness currently, whatever downside interruption from hither would probable encounter greater volatility than recent corrections.
I too greenback that the volatility of realized volatility (vol of vol) has been higher of late than at whatever fourth dimension since 2013. The recent ascension inwards realized volatility in addition to vol of vol helps to explicate why short-term traders bring had difficulty trading U.S.A. stocks: We’ve had movement, only non trend. It’s been a choppy, volatile arrive at trade. Buying forcefulness or selling weakness–trading amongst a fearfulness of missing out–has been a consistent agency to lose money. Viewed on a longer fourth dimension scale, however, this marketplace appears to survive i of narrowing breadth–even amidst those smaller cap sectors that bring been strongest. That keeps me cautious.
Further Reading: Macro Themes Impacting Stocks